Bouncing along.

The conventions have been and gone, and both candidates have benefitted from whatever bounces they will generate.

The result is that McCain is up 50-46 according to Zogby, 54-44 according to USA Today/Gallup, 48-47 accoding to Rasmussen and tied according to CNN. The RCP acverage has McCain up 47.5 to 45.

Interestingly, the only one of those to poll likely voters as opposed to registered voters is USA Today/Gallup.

Also of note is that the intrade odds have narrowed to 53-47 in Obama's favour having not so long ago been about 3-1.

None of this amounts to a whole lot with a couple of months left to go, but what looked like being a sure thing for the Democrat now looks a whole lot less certain. Indeed, all things remaining equal (which of course they will not) I would go so far as to say it favours McCain.

There will no doubt be lots of predictions to come, so I will stick my neck out and make mine now. McCain wins by 295 electoral votes to 243.