Getting it wrong.

Like a lot of people, I thought that the Libdems got it right in their last leadership election. At the time it seemed that Nick Clegg, a seemingly decent chap, eloquent and personable, would be a significant step forward from the uninspiring Sir Menzies Campbell.

Clegg was towards the right of his party, and would be able, or so we thought, to hold the line against the Tories, while taking advantage of disaffection with the Labour government, holding on in the south and pressing in to the northern cities.

Reality has of course proven us to be utterly wrong. The Libdem standing in the polls has receded even further, and is now some 6% lower than it was in 2005. They face a wipeout in the south (perhaps the one scrap of comfort for Clegg in this is that his biggest leadership rival, Chris Huhne, is almost certain to lose his seat), and their prospects in the northern cities are based on the collapse of the Labour party.

It seems that the Libdems themselves recognise the shortcomings of their leader. In a poll on LibDem Voice (LDV survey) Clegg has come in fourth most impressive. This would not be a problem if he were surrounded by a sea of talented people, but given the mediocrity of his team must be a cause for concern. (Vince Cable is the only person to get a rating above 7, and this remember is a survey of LibDem members.)

Nick Clegg has clearly failed to sieze the opportunity, and it the window has probably now closed. The vast weight of speculation is quite rightly on Gordon Brown's future, but it is worth considering that there is just as strong a case for a new LibDem leader.

Either way, it goes to show that the received wisdom is often wrong.