Republican Opportunities.

I blogged a couple of days ago about the fact that John McCain is currently in a better position than George Bush enjoyed in 2004, but while things continue to move his way (The RCP "No Toss Up" prediction now has McCain leading 274-264, and the intrade figures have slipped a little more towards him), most would agree that Obama remains the favourite.

This however represents an opportunity. In 2004 the Republicans were able to concentrate on mobilising the base, and make a case based on the inadequacy of Kerry. Barring major unforseen events, that will not suffice this time. They are going to have to present solid reasons why they should win.

These reasons exist, but the necessity of frameing them means that should McCain win, he will have a roadmap already in place. Having ambled across the line in both his elections, as much on the basis of who he wasn't as who he was, Bush was a much vaguer proposition. This difference could also benefit Republicans in congressional races both this year, and in 2010.

Republicans at all levels face a hard fight this year, but they may emerge the better for it.

Update:
A new poll has McCain 5% ahead as they head to the conventions