Obama behind Kerry.

National Review have a fun post which will send shivers down the spines of the left (those who have spines anyway.)

It gives links to the electoral-vote.com website contrasting their current prediction with the one from the same point four years ago.

Four years ago they had Kerry up 317 to 202, today they have Obama up 273 to 250.

I am not saying that this means McCain is going to win and do so by a bigger margin than Bush, but when taken in conjunction with the Real Clear Politics average which shows Obama ahead by 275 to 263 (RCP have Obama up by only 0.5% in Indiana and 2.3% in Minnesota, either of which would put McCain ahead), it suggests that the race remains a toss-up. It is worth noting that Intrade has Obama leading McCain by about 3-2. Not long ago it was nearer to 3-1.

Events between now and November will no doubt determine the election, and those could cut either way, but the events at the moment are good for McCain. Barring something extreme happening, this looks set to be a squeaker.